基于非理性博弈的舆情传播仿真建模研究

郭东伟; 乌云娜; 邹蕴; 孟祥燕

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1004.2014.01721

基于非理性博弈的舆情传播仿真建模研究

doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1004.2014.01721

郭东伟^1,2, ,,
乌云娜^1,2,
邹蕴^1,2,
孟祥燕^1,2

1.
吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院长春 130012;
2.
吉林大学符号计算与知识工程教育部重点实验室长春 130012

基金项目:

吉林省科技发展计划（20130101047JC）资助

详细信息

作者简介:
乌云娜吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院硕士研究生. 2011 年获得吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院计算机系学士学位.主要研究方向为博弈论与复杂网络.E-mail：jinwyn0301@163.com

通讯作者:
郭东伟吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院教授. 2002 年获得吉林大学博士学位.主要研究方向为博弈论，计算智能，复杂网络，传感器网络.E-mail：guodw@jlu.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-07-15
- 修回日期: 2014-01-27
- 刊出日期: 2014-08-20

Simulation and Modeling of Non-rational Game Based Public Opinion Spread

GUO Dong-Wei^{1,2
, ,},
WU Yun-Na^1,2,
ZOU Yun^1,2,
MENG Xiang-Yan^1,2

1.
College of Computer Science and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun 130012;
2.
Key Laboratory of Symbolic Computation and Knowledge Engineering Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130012

Funds:

Supported by Science and Technology Development Plan of Jilin Province (20130101047JC)

摘要

摘要: 随着社交网络的不断发展，借助社交网络进行传播的舆情信息的威胁越来越大. 本文利用博弈论的方法研究了舆情信息的传播机制，从理性博弈和非理性博弈的角度出发对个体与邻居的交互行为进行建模. 随后以目前较为成熟的传染病模型为基础，通过引入传播学中的社会威慑因素来构建基于非理性博弈的舆情传播模型，以实现适应舆情传播研究的仿真系统，继而将基于非理性博弈的舆情传播模型在无标度网络和小世界网络上的动力学特征进行理论分析. 在仿真环境中对非理性博弈的舆情传播模型进行实验，分析模型参数、网络密度和舆情传播源对舆情传播的影响，其结果符合理论分析结果. 最后对无标度网络上舆情传播的控制策略进行了研究，包括：社会威慑方法、目标免疫方法和正面消息方法，为社交网络上的政策制定提供了理论基础.
- 博弈论 /
- 非理性 /
- 舆情传播 /
- 舆情控制 /
- 仿真
Abstract: With the continuous development of social networks, the threat of public opinions which spread on the social networks is growing accordingly. This paper studies the dissemination mechanism of public opinion based on the method of game theory, and builds a game model of agent interaction with neighbors form the view of rational and non-rational games. Then on the basis of the mature epidemic model, we implement a simulation system. The system can adapt to the research of public opinion spread by proposing a public opinion spread model based on non-rational game, and analyze the dynamics characteristic of the public opinion spread model based on non-rational game theoretically in scale-free networks and small-world networks. In the simulation environment, we experiment on the public opinion spread model based on non-rational game to analyze model parameters, network density. The infectious source's affection on spreading. The experimental results agree with the theoretic analysis. Finally, a control strategy of the spreading on scale-free network, which includes social deterrence methods, target immune methods, and positive messages method, is studied to provide a the theoretical basis for policy-making on social networks.
- Game theory /
- non-rational /
- public opinion spread /
- public opinion control /
- simulation

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参考文献(28)

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基于非理性博弈的舆情传播仿真建模研究

doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1004.2014.01721

作者简介:
乌云娜吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院硕士研究生. 2011 年获得吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院计算机系学士学位.主要研究方向为博弈论与复杂网络.E-mail：jinwyn0301@163.com

通讯作者:
郭东伟吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院教授. 2002 年获得吉林大学博士学位.主要研究方向为博弈论，计算智能，复杂网络，传感器网络.E-mail：guodw@jlu.edu.cn

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Simulation and Modeling of Non-rational Game Based Public Opinion Spread

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留言板

基于非理性博弈的舆情传播仿真建模研究

doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1004.2014.01721

作者简介: 乌云娜 吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院硕士研究生. 2011 年获得吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院计算机系学士学位.主要研究方向为博弈论与复杂网络.E-mail：jinwyn0301@163.com

通讯作者: 郭东伟 吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院教授. 2002 年获得吉林大学博士学位.主要研究方向为博弈论，计算智能，复杂网络，传感器网络.E-mail：guodw@jlu.edu.cn

计量

出版历程

Simulation and Modeling of Non-rational Game Based Public Opinion Spread

计量

出版历程

目录

作者简介:
乌云娜吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院硕士研究生. 2011 年获得吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院计算机系学士学位.主要研究方向为博弈论与复杂网络.E-mail：jinwyn0301@163.com

通讯作者:
郭东伟吉林大学计算机科学与技术学院教授. 2002 年获得吉林大学博士学位.主要研究方向为博弈论，计算智能，复杂网络，传感器网络.E-mail：guodw@jlu.edu.cn